Table of Contents

Agriculture & Global Climate Change

Foreword     ii

Executive Summary     1

I. Introduction     5

II. Dimensions and Trends of U.S. Agriculture     7

A. Technological Impact on Agricultural Yields     7
B. Population Growth Rates and Expansion of Food Supplies     8
C. Agricultural-based Pollution and Environmental Challenges     8

III. Biophysical Effects of Climate Change on Crops and Livestock     10

A. Response of Crop Yields to Climate Change     11
B. Response of Livestock to Climate Change     13
C. Indirect Effects of Climate Change     14

IV. The Role of Human Response and Adaptation to Climate Change     15

A. Possibilities for Adaptation to Climate Change     15
B. Assessing Biophysical Effects and Human Responses     18
C. Including Adaptation in Climate Change Assessments     18

V. Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Production, Prices, and Welfare     21

VI. Environmental Effects of Agricultural Production     26

A. Impacts of Climate Change on Critical Agro-ecosystems     26
B. Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Water Supplies     27

VII. Mitigation and Societal Responses to the Problem of GHG Emissions     29

VIII. Conclusion     31

Endnotes     33

References     32