Table of Contents

Foreword      ii

Executive Summary      iii

2. Introduction     1
   1. Technologies: An Expanding Set of Generation Options     2
   2. Investment Decisions in Electric Power Generation     3
   3. Electricity & Economic Growth     4
   4. Implications     7

3. Study Goals and Approach     9
   1. Simulation Model Description     10
   2. Overview of Scenario Analyses     11

4. The Business-as-Usual Case     13
   1. Trends     13
   2. Investment Portfolio     14

5. Alternatives to Business-as-Usual     16
   1. Including Infrastructure Costs in New Capacity Investment Decisions     16
   2. The Acceleration of Private-Sector Participation     20
   3. The Use of Low-Emissions Technologies     24
   4. Improvements in Energy Efficiency     29

6. Conclusions and Recommendations     31

Appendix A: Description of the Generic Model     35

Appendix B: Environmental Externalities     39

Appendix C: Model Data and Sources     41

Endnotes     45