Foreword

Developing Countries & Global Climate Change

Eileen Claussen, Executive Director, Pew Center on Global Climate Change

Understanding the possibilities for greenhouse gas emission reductions in developing countriescan inform the debate over long-term equitable commitments and global participation in a climate change regime. This study investigates policy and technology choices in the electric power sector that can lower carbon dioxide and other air emissions, while maintaining or improving economic growth.

The standard projection shows electric sector CO₂ emissions in developing countries nearly tripling over the next twenty years as a result of investments of approximately $1.7 trillion. This sector already represents 10 percent of global emissions. The study presents four alternative paths for new power generation that could maintain economic growth and reduce new emissions to levels below this projection:

• Including the costs of electricity delivery - not just generation - makes planning and investment decisions more efficient and makes distributed renewable energy more viable, decreasing CO₂ emissions by up to 2.5 percent;

• Increasing privatization of the electricity sector could reduce CO₂ emissions by up to 1 percent and boost economic benefits by up to 5 percent;

• Using low-emissions technologies - for example, increasing the use of natural gas and renew-ables - could reduce CO₂ emissions by almost 25 percent while producing the same economic benefits; and

• Increasing the efficiency of electricity supply and demand could reduce CO₂ emissions by roughly 10 percent in one scenario.

T hese findings were based on an aggregated analysis and may not hold for individual countries.For similar benefits to accrue, specific reforms that account for national conditions would have to be implemented in each country. Countries could also participate in the Clean Development Mechanism to increase the available up-front financing to accomplish these reforms.

This report is the fourth in a series by the Pew Center on Global Climate Change examining policy questions both domestically and internationally. Five case studies - evaluating electric power options in more detail - will be published for Argentina, Brazil, China, India, and the Republic of Korea.

The Pew Center was established in 1998 by the Pew Charitable Trusts to bring a new coopera-tive approach and critical scientific, economic, and technological expertise to the global climate change debate. The Pew Center and its Business Environmental Leadership Council believe that climate change is serious business. Better understanding of those sensible actions that reduce emissions without hurt-ing the economy brings us closer to a serious solution.