Table of Contents

U.S. Electric Power Sector and Climate Change Mitigation

Foreword ii

Executive Summary iii

I.   Introduction 1

A.   A Brief Description of the Electricity Industry Today 3
B.   The Four Eras of the U.S. Electric Power Industry 8
C.   Greenhouse Gas and Conventional Air Pollutant Emissions From the Electricity  Industry 15

II.   Problems in Managing the Restructured Industry 21

A.    Conflicting Private and Social Goals 21
B.    Capital Investment in the Face of Uncertainty 23

III.  Factors Likely to Shape the Evolution and Carbon Intensity of the Industry 26

A.    Improved End-Use Efficiency and Load Control  26
B.    Technologies That Could Change the Carbon Intensity of the Electric Power    Industry 30
C.    The Important But Neglected Role of Research 46

IV.   Exploring Possible Futures for the Electric Power Industry 51

A.    Extrapolations and Their Limitations 51
B.    The Next 10 Years 55
C.    The Next 50 Years  58

V.    Discussion and Policy Recommendations  64

VI.   Conclusions 74

Endnotes 76