Climate Change: The State of the Question and the Search for the Answer

CLIMATE CHANGE: THE STATE OF THE QUESTION AND THE SEARCH FOR THE ANSWER

SPEECH BY EILEEN CLAUSSEN, PRESIDENT, PEW CENTER ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

ST. JOHNS UNIVERSITY, October 5, 2006

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Are There Policies That Can Help?

This brings us to the third question: do policy solutions exist that will prove effective without causing more harm than good. And the answer, again, is yes.

A revolution such as this simply will not happen without a push and a pull from government. And the fact is, we know what kind of policies will work to reduce emissions across the economy. Again, there is no question about this. And we also know what kind of policies won’t work. For example, while the White House and its allies continue to say that our current, voluntary climate policies are enough, U.S. emissions keep on rising. Last year, the Department of Energy reported a 2-percent jump in greenhouse gas emissions between 2003 and 2004. Since 1990, our emissions have increased by more than 16 percent.

Voluntary policies are not going to get the job done. Mandatory policies are clearly what we need. And so in 2005, the U.S. Senate passed a bipartisan measure calling for a national, mandatory, market-based program to slow, stop and, ultimately, reverse the growth in U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. Although the measure was nonbinding, it marked the first time the Senate has gone on record to support mandatory action on this issue.

Among the key climate policy solutions we know about is “cap-and-trade.” This is a policy that requires emissions reductions while allowing companies to trade emission credits so they can achieve their reductions as cost-effectively as possible. The most important benefit of this approach: it establishes a value for emissions reductions, as well as an economic advantage for the technologies that can achieve them.

The cap-and-trade model already has proven successful in this country in reducing emissions of the pollutants that cause acid rain. We know it can work. Cap-and-trade, in fact, is the cornerstone of climate legislation introduced by Senators John McCain and Joseph Lieberman, and others, in both the Senate and the House have also introduced cap and trade legislation. In the state of California, where Governor Schwarzenegger

recently signed the most ambitious state program to address climate change, there is authorization to move forward with a cap and trade program. Many of the businesses we work with at the Pew Center support the cap-and-trade approach because it is effective—and because it will grant them the flexibility they need to achieve the necessary reductions at the lowest possible cost.

Here in New York, your governor is supporting a cap-and-trade initiative together with seven other Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic states. It is called the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (or “RGGI”). This innovative pact among the states is aimed at reducing carbon dioxide emissions from power plants in the region. It’s the first cap-and-trade program to control these emissions in the United States—and it reflects a sophisticated understanding among these governors that mandatory, market-based policies are essential. It also reflects an acknowledgment that, when it comes to government action on climate change, the more parties that work together, the greater the efficiencies and the lower the costs. This is why the ultimate goal has to be a national cap-and-trade system that covers the entire U.S. economy.

But cap-and-trade is not the only policy solution to climate change. We need a wider range of policies. Governments also need to invest in research to develop some of the most critical, long-term, climate-friendly technologies. And policies are needed to ensure that those technologies that reduce emissions can gain a solid foothold in the marketplace.

Many of these policies are sector specific. I already talked about the transportation sector and its emissions. And it’s worth noting here that many governments around the world have adopted more stringent policies than the United States to reduce tailpipe greenhouse gas emissions and/or increase the fuel economy of cars and trucks. Even China has higher standards than we do. So, of course, it is clearly possible. Despite the automobile companies’ resistance, technologies exist to reduce emissions from this sector. And by adopting tougher but reasonable standards, we can hasten the rollout of cost-effective, commercially available technology to reduce vehicle emissions.

Typically, the state of California has been a national leader on this issue. Lawmakers in that state have taken steps to begin regulating carbon dioxide emissions from cars and trucks. It is a policy that 10 other states are poised to follow if it survives a legal challenge from the automakers. California’s standard for vehicles could reduce annual greenhouse gas emissions in the state by 30 million tons of carbon dioxide by 2020. And the reductions will build from there as other states follow California’s lead. And, once again, the work of California, like the work of New York and its partners here in the East, will build momentum for national action to reduce emissions from cars and trucks.

So that’s an important policy solution in the transportation sector. In the electricity sector, a policy that shows real promise for reducing emissions is something called the “renewable portfolio standard” (or RPS). As of today, 22 states, including such large emitters as Texas and California, now require that electric utilities generate a specified amount of electricity from renewable sources. These states see an RPS not only as a way to protect the climate but also as a way to support new energy industries and new jobs. The state of Texas, for example, estimates that the amount of renewable energy that has entered the system because of the state’s RPS exceeds the amount of renewable energy produced in the state over the past 100 years. By reducing fossil fuel generation, the Texas program should cut carbon dioxide emissions by 3.3 million tons. And this is a policy that was signed into law by none other than former Governor George W. Bush.

The work that states like Texas and California are doing on the climate issue could produce enough material for an entire lecture—and I encourage you to visit the Pew Center’s website so you can see our database of state activities and related reports. My point today is that these states know what types of policies will be needed to reduce our nation’s emissions—and a growing number of our lawmakers in Washington know it too. It is going to take mandatory, market-based policies, as well as policies that support research, development and deployment of new low-carbon energy technologies.

And it is also going to take international policies. This, too, is not in question. Climate change is a global problem requiring global action. Even if we were to get smarter about reducing the United States’ contribution to climate change, global energy use will continue to surge, carbon dioxide emissions will continue to grow, and climate change will remain a significant threat. We cannot protect the climate without a global framework that enlists all countries to do their part to reduce emissions, and that provides poorer countries with the support they need to do so. Because climate change is truly an issue that knows no bounds.

The Kyoto Protocol has been the focus of a lot of attention and a lot of discussion (and a lot of controversy) over the past several years. Kyoto, of course, is the international agreement that commits participating countries to specific targets for reducing their emissions. However, Kyoto’s targets take us only to 2012, and without commitments from the United States, Australia, China and other major emitters, it’s not nearly enough. What’s needed looking forward is a new global framework for action, one that engages all the major emitting countries and that provides them with the flexibility they need to reduce emissions in ways that make the most sense for them.

The Pew Center recently held a series of discussions with a range of policy makers, companies and NGOs from 15 countries to consider the elements of a global framework that looks beyond 2012. The participants laid out a number of clear priorities. For example, they strongly endorsed market-based approaches as a core element of the international effort, but they said we shouldn’t necessarily limit ourselves to Kyoto-style targets setting binding absolute caps on emissions. Most importantly, they understood that not every nation is the same; not every nation has the same emissions profile; not every nation has the same capability; and not every nation is in the same state of development. So we have to be flexible and we have to recognize that developing countries, who are still trying to supply their populations with basic services, including electricity, may have to make their contribution to solving this problem in a different way.

From this effort, and from the work we are continuing to do that will further flesh out this framework, it is clear that there are policies at the global level that can lay the groundwork for effective action. But the global discussion on future frameworks is only beginning – and the United States is not even at the table.

The Search for the Answer

So if I could briefly recap: The scientific integrity of climate change is solid – the earth is warming. This warming will likely manifest itself in ways that are detrimental to life as we know it. And human actions are largely to blame for the warming.

We have the capacity to solve this problem. Many of the technologies to combat global warming already exist. And importantly, we know that there are policies we can put in place that will unleash the kind of technological revolution we are going to need.

So now, after searching through some of the answers we arrive at the State of the Question. And it is this:

Given everything we know, why are we doing so little to address climate change?

And I believe the answer to this question leads us directly into the provinces of values and ethics, because it forces us to confront a still more fundamental question: what is our responsibility to others? What is our responsibility to our children and our grandchildren, and to their children and grandchildren? Do we leave them a world that is better or worse than the one we inherited? Of course most people, when asked, would insist that we should leave a world that is better than the world that we inherited. But if we do not grapple with this problem, if we do not adjust our behavior in an intelligent, measured way—we will neither protect our environment nor sustain a growing global economy. And the world we leave will be in far worse condition that the one we were born into.

The first thing we have to understand is that it is not we but future generations who will likely bear the brunt of the effects of climate change. And the brunt will be borne not by the wealthy but by the poor.

Consider for a moment some of the expected impacts of a changing climate: more flooding and more droughts; a scarcity of fresh water resources; extended heat waves; more powerful storms and other extreme weather events; rising sea levels; damage to fragile ecosystems; diminished agricultural yields; and threats to human health as communicable diseases now known mainly in the tropics will worsen and spread to temperate climates.

Consider only the issue of sea level rise. By the end of the century, if nothing is done to rein in emissions of greenhouse gases, global sea level may be three feet higher than it is today, bringing unforgiving impacts to low-lying coastal communities throughout the world.

And we know that these impacts will be borne disproportionately by those least able to cope. So why are we paralyzed?

An estimated 97 percent of all natural disaster-related deaths happen in developing countries. These countries need help doing two things: they need help with planning so that disasters do not inflict such an enormous toll on their societies; and they need help with investments in safe drinking water supplies, better sanitation, sustainable farming, safer housing, anything that can help their residents make it through these disasters and resume their lives, and livelihoods, without having to start all over.

In addition to a responsibility to future generations, we also have a responsibility to the poor, both today and tomorrow. In developed and developing nations, poor people do not have the resources to respond and adapt to climate change in the same way in which the rest of us can respond and adapt.

Think about what we saw last year in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. We saw an American city, New Orleans, completely devastated, and we saw the city’s poorest residents suffering the most. I cannot categorically say that Katrina was caused by global warming, although scientists have observed that hurricanes are becoming more intense, and will continue to do so as ocean temperatures rise. What I can say, however, is that Katrina was a bitter taste of things to come. None other than the CEO of Wal-Mart, Lee Scott, has referred to climate change as “Katrina in slow motion.”

The disproportionate impact of Katrina on poor people should serve as a reminder to us all: people with resources can move and rebuild and start new lives in the event of hurricanes and other weather disasters brought about by climate change. Poor people, on the other hand, often have nowhere else to go, nowhere else to turn, no resources to make the kinds of changes in their lives that will protect them from this global problem.

What strikes you most when you look at the data on the impacts of climate change is that the most vulnerable countries are in the developing world. Africa, for example, is extremely susceptible to the impacts of climate change; in fact, the continent and its people already are showing signs of having trouble adapting to a warmer world.

Africa, of course, is not alone. Other parts of the developing world face similar threats. In Bangladesh, a one-meter rise in sea level would inundate 17 percent of the country. Even in areas that might be spared from flooding, the availability of freshwater will be threatened as saltwater intrudes into estuaries and groundwater.

Agriculture in developing countries will take a special hit. Wheat, for example, will virtually disappear as a crop in Africa; there will be substantial declines in Asia and South America as well. At a time when we are looking anew at debt forgiveness and other strategies for reducing disparities between rich and poor countries, it is essential that we consider the role of climate change in making those disparities even more pronounced.

And what of the developing countries whose very existence is threatened by climate change? I am talking here about small island states such as Tuvalu. This is a nine-island chain in the central Pacific that is home to 11,000 residents. On average, these islands are just one meter above sea level. As sea levels rise, these people will have to leave their homeland, becoming the world’s first climate refugees – but certainly not the last.

Now, if all of these countries I’ve talked about had in some way been largely responsible for climate change, that might be another matter. Maybe we would look at the issue a little differently, for example, if Africa had produced the lion’s share of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions over time and now was being asked to suffer the consequences.

But Africa produces just 2 to 3 percent of worldwide emissions of greenhouse gases. The United States, by contrast, with just 5 percent of the global population, is responsible for more than 20 percent of worldwide emissions. And there is also the issue of cumulative emissions. The fact is that climate change is a problem that has been decades in the making as carbon dioxide and other gases have accumulated in the atmosphere over time. These gases have a long life and can remain in the atmosphere for decades or even centuries. And, in the span of the last century or so, it was the United States and other already developed countries that were producing the lion’s share of these emissions.

Looking only at carbon dioxide, the United States was responsible for more than 30 percent of global emissions between 1850 and 2000. The comparable figure for China: just 7 or 8 percent. Even considering the high rates of projected growth in China’s and India’s emissions, the cumulative contributions of developed and developing countries to climate change will not reach parity until sometime between 2030 and 2065.

Clearly all of the major emitting countries need to be a part of the solution to climate change. But saying that all of today’s big emitters should be equally responsible for reducing their emissions is like going to a restaurant and having a nice dinner and then running into a friend who joins you for coffee. And, when the check comes, you make your friend who only had the coffee split the cost of the entire dinner. Yes, developing countries need to do their part, but there is no denying that the developed world, including the United States, has a moral and ethical responsibility to act first.

We also have a responsibility to help developing nations adapt to a warming world. No matter what we do, some amount of global warming already is built into the climate system. There will be impacts; there already are impacts. And it is people living in poverty in the developing world who will face the most serious consequences.

So it really comes down, again, to a question of responsibility. What is our responsibility? And it is not just our responsibility to our fellow man (or woman). There is also our responsibility to the natural world, to the earth. Beyond human societies, the natural world also will suffer from the effects of climate change. In fact, we are already seeing changes in the natural world due to climate change. Coral reefs are at risk because of warmer and more acidic ocean waters. Polar bears are threatened by declines in sea ice. Species already are disappearing because of new diseases connected to climate change. In short, climate change holds the potential of inflicting severe damage on the ecosystems that support all life on earth.

So why, then, have we failed to take responsibility? Why has there been such an absence of political will?

As I consider the politics of climate change, I am drawn to two answers.

First, this is a problem that demands solutions and sacrifice now, even though its most serious consequences will be felt in the future. Our democratic political institutions are based on time horizons that correspond to political terms of two, four or six years. But climate change is a problem that, although we are beginning to see impacts now, reserves its most severe consequences for future decades and centuries.

For a member of Congress or a President to ask today’s voters to sacrifice in some way when the benefits are not immediately apparent (and, frankly, hard to conceive) is asking a lot. This doesn’t mean we shouldn’t ask, but we need to understand the nature of our democratic political system. Any time a politician even suggests that there is a possibility that we should perhaps consider raising the gasoline tax, he or she is virtually guaranteed to be slammed by opponents in the next election. The pretext of the attack is that this politician is threatening our way of life.

It is now vs. the future. Today vs. tomorrow. And, more often than not, today is going to win. Our present generation enjoys the benefits of doing next to nothing to address climate change in the form of low energy costs, convenience and ample creature comforts. Even hinting that we may have to sacrifice some of those benefits for some elusive future gain does not win elections. Tomorrow does not win elections; today does.

The second answer revolves around money. In the same way that the voters of today benefit from the current system, so too do the influential interests that support today’s political campaigns and that have a strong lobbying presence in Washington and many state capitals. There is no National Association of Tomorrow’s People in Washington, but there are countless trade groups whose sole purpose is to make sure that our lawmakers’ decisions protect the ability of today’s industries and businesses to maximize current profits. Yes, many businesses have come around to recognizing the need for action to protect the climate, seeing it as assuring profits in the future. But the balance remains tilted in favor of the status quo. Today’s interests support political campaigns. Tomorrow’s interests do not.

And, in the same way that our national democratic systems are not well equipped to deal with a problem such as climate change, our international system is even more poorly equipped. We simply do not have mechanisms in place for mobilizing (and enforcing) international action on an issue such as this. And, given the potential for varying climate impacts in varying places around the world, some nations may erroneously think they will be better off as climate change continues, at least in relation to others. And, as a result, there are these varying levels of incentives, and varying levels of alarm, about the problem. And the result is an inability to reach consensus about a global approach.

And, it is because of the inadequacy of our political institutions (both domestic and international) to deal with an issue such as this that those with a vested interest in the status quo can prevail. All they have to do is raise questions about the science, the technology or the policies—and our institutions, which already are enormously challenged by this problem, simply back off.

James Freeman Clarke once said. “A politician thinks of the next election; a statesman thinks of the next generation.” Ladies and gentlemen – I believe it is time for statesmanship.

And while I am happy to discuss the shortcomings of many in leadership positions in this country – I don’t believe they bear the whole of the burden for their actions (or lack thereof). The public – you and I -- bear some of the responsibility. We have not clearly told our elected officials that we believe this is a vital issue – for today and tomorrow; that we are willing to change our energy habits and to make sacrifices if necessary. We have not made our voices heard.

And we must find a voice for those who do not have one – future generations, and people without means. For far too long, climate change has ranked near the bottom tier of environmental issues – but climate change at its core is not an environmental issue, it is a moral and ethical issue. I believe we will only see progress on this issue if and when our leaders finally see it that way.

While conducting some research to prepare for today, I reread the statement on climate change on the Catholic Bishop’s website and there was one part – attributed to Pope John Paul that I found beautiful in its’ simplicity – It says:

At its core, global climate change is not about economic theory or political platforms, nor about partisan advantage or interest group pressures. It is about the future of God's creation and the one human family. It is about protecting both "the human environment" and the natural environment.¹ It is about our human stewardship of God's creation and our responsibility to those who come after us.

Ralph Waldo Emerson once said, “When we have arrived at the question, the answer is already near.”

So what is the question? I believe it is this: Why are we shirking our responsibility to address climate change? And Emerson was right: the answer is near. Because in arriving at this question, we are acknowledging that we should be doing more, much more, to protect our climate. We know what we need to do, and we know we can do it. We simply need to muster the courage and the political will to put the status quo behind us and shape a safer, better future for our planet and the generations to come.

Now, I will welcome your questions. Thank you very much.